Chief Oil Economist DNB Bank Global View on Oil Market
- Most unplanned shutdowns since 2011.
- Opec cut production but did not cut exports. OPEC exported from inventory so inventory drew down. US rig count increased 10 rigs week versus their estimate of 5
- OPEC Waterborne Crude exports have come down
- Saudi Arabia had drawn down 33% of its foreign reserves
- Demand growth is surprising to the upside
- Stock draws if OPEC deliver according to our base case
- Shale growing massively in the US
- Not in oversupply any longer on the global picture
- US Shale needs 400k barrels per day to stay flat.
- Break-even costs have come down but are now rising
- Bunker fuel specs are changing, not sure how that impacts things though
CIBC Avery Shenfield Chief Economist
- Emerging markets drive all of total oil demand
- World demand for oil growing from emerging market countries,
- Oil forcast $55 in 2018
- Nat gas stuck in tight range with $3 being the swing point for natural gas production