JP Morgan look back at performance metrics for the year

Harvey Sax

11 years ago

2013 – a look back at performance metrics for the year

US equities saw gains across the board in 2013. DJIA +26.5%, SPX +29.6%, SPR +30.12%, Nasdaq +38.32%, Wilshire 5K +30.45%, Russell 2K +37%.
The DJIA, SPX, and RTY are all at all-time nominal highs. However, of the “Big 3” US indices (DJIA, SPX, CCMP), only the DJIA has achieved all time REAL highs (adjusted for inflation). The SPX still has another ~10-13% to go (depending on how one measures inflation). The Nasdaq hasn’t even achieved fresh nominal highs.
Within the SPX, gains were broad w/several sectors outpacing the broader index. Some of the best performing sub-groups: Financials (S5FINL) +32.7%, Banks (BKX) +34.4%), asset managers (S5AMGT) +44%, insurance (S5INSU) +44.6%, semis (SOX) +38%, tech hardware (HWI) +59%, health care (S5HLTH) +38%, industrials (S5INDU) +37%, consumer discretionary (S5COND) +40%, media (S5MEDA) +47.5%, retail (S5RETL) +43%, transports (TRAN) +38.5%, and airlines (XAL) +55.8%.
Only a few US groups underperformed and most that did are inversely related to higher rates. REITs overall (S5REAL) fell 1% while apartment REITs (S5RERE) slumped ~9.5%. Other laggards: telecoms (S5TELS) +6.6%, utilities (S5UTIL) +8.45%, gold miners (S5GOLD) -49.7%, and builders (S15HOME) +9.88%. Note that more than all the builder gains have come in Q4 (the S15HOME index is up ~13% in Q4 alone).
The best performing stocks in the whole market (using the S&P 1500): SUNE +306%, NFLX +296%, ANIK +293.9%, ZLC +283%, ABFS +252%, MU +242%, MEI +240%, BBY +236%, CAMP +236%, WAGE +233%, MDSO +209.1%, SVU +195%, SNTS +191%, GTAT +188%, BOFI +181%, AFFX +170%, DDD +161%, FNP +157%, HCI +157%, ENDP +156%.
The worst performing stocks in the whole market (using the S&P 1500): TWGP -78%, JCP -53%, NEM -50%, IO -49%, RAX -47%, JAKK -46%, FST -46%, RGLD -43%, EZPW -41%, ACI -39.2%, STRA -38.6%, CENT -35%, CBB -35%, CLF -32%, ANF -31%, ACC -30%, ARO -30%, BTH -30%, AEO -30%.
Best performing SPX stocks: NFLX +296%, MU +242%, BBY +236%, DAL +131%, ETFC +119%, PBI +118%, CELG +114%, BSX +109%, GNW +106%, FB +105%, GILD +104%, YHOO +103%, LNC +99%, STZ +98%, WDC +97%, TRIP +97%, HPQ +96%, GME +96%, ACT +95%, SEE +94% (note that BBY and HPQ were both among the top 10 worst performing stocks of 2012).
Worst performing SPX stocks: NEM -50%, CLF -32%, EW -27%, BTU -26%, TDC -26.5%, ISRG -21.6%, FE -21%, HCP -19%, CTL -18%, MOS -16%, AVB -12%, HCN -12%, DO -12%, ADT -12%, VTR -11%, BRCM -10%, JBL -9%, EQR -8%, JOY -8%, DGX -8%.
Largest point contributors to the SPX: GOOG 12.9 points, MSFT 9.2, GE 8.7, XOM 8, JNJ 6.9, GILD 6.6, JPM 6.4, AMZN 6.3, WFC 6.3, BRK 6.1, DIS 5.3, AAPL 5.1, BAC 5.08, BA 4.75, CMCSA 4.5, PFE 4.5, PG 4.3, C 4.3, CELG 4.2. Note that the largest single point contributor (GOOG at 12.9 points) only was ~2.9% of the total rally (445 points) in 2013 – back in 2012 the largest point contributor (AAPL at 13 points) was 7.7% of the total rally (168 points). NEM subtracted the most points from the SPX in 2013 (1.2). The next largest subtractor was CTL (only 0.46 points).
Highest SPX dividend yields: WIN 12.4%, FTR 8.5%, CTL 6.78%, FE 6.72%, DO 6.19%, HCN 5.74%, HCP 5.73%, POM 5.64%, EXC 5.28%, ETR 5.24%, T 5.13%, TE 5.11%, RAI 5%, FCX 5%, TEG 5%, SO 4.9%, PPL 4.9%, NEM 4.88%, MO 4.81%, VTR 4.67%, PCG 4.5%, PEG 4.5%, DUK 4.49%, KMI 4.47%.
“Dogs of the Dow” stocks for 2014 (i.e. those DJIA members w/the highest dividend yields): T 5.11%, VZ 4.22%, INTC 3.5%, MRK 3.47%, MCD 3.2%, PFE 3.08%, CVX 3.06%, CSCO 2.92%, PG 2.8%, JNJ 2.75%. V, AXP, and DIS have the smallest dividend yields in the DJIA (all sub 1%).
Treasuries: 10yr yields started the year at 1.75% and finished at ~3.02%. The TYA finished ’13 down ~6.8%. The 2-10 spread widened out >100bp (from 1.51% to 2.65%).
Europe saw decent gains but lagged behind the US and Japan. The Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) and Stoxx 600 (SXPP) rallied 17.95% and 17.37%, respectively. Peripheral countries outperformed their “core” peers – Ireland (ISEQ) +33.6%, Greece (ASE) +28.06%, and Spain (IBEX) +21.42% outperformed the UK (UKX) +14.43% and France (CAC) +17.99%. Germany (DAX) rallied 25.48%. Looking at individual European sub-groups, the biggest gainers were autos (SXAP) +37.28%, industrials (SXNP) +22.46%, tech (SX8P) +26.6%, insurance (SXIP) +28.86%, media (SXMP) +33.7%, and telecoms (SXKP) +32.06%. Basic resources lagged materially behind the rest of the Europe – the SXPP slumped >13.36%. The EUR rallied 4.37%.
Best performing Euro Stoxx 600 (SXXP) members: Ocada +409.6%, Vestas Wind +402.8%, Thomas Cook Group +301.8%, Alcatel-Lucent +242%, Bankinter +147%, Pandora +136%, Mediaset +121.4%, Bank Ireland +121%, Valeo +113.7%, Natixis +101.3%, Easyjet +100.6%, Nokia +98.9%, Sky Deutschland +93.6%, Rightmove +90.8%, ITV +90.46%, Hellenic Telecom +89.61%, United Internet +89.5%, EADS +89%, Jyske Bank +86.19%.
Weakest performing Euro Stoxx 600 (SXXP) members: Bankia -74.11%, Fresnillo -59%, Polymetal -51%, Saipem -46.9%, CGG -44.3%, Suedzucker -36.7%, Randgold -36.3%, K+S -36%, Debenhams -36%, Antofagasta -34.4%, Tullow Oil -32.2%, Anglo American -30%, Outotec -28.16%, FirstGroup -27.5%, RSA Insurance -27%, Lanxess -26.8%, Remy -26%, Petrofac -24.5%.
European bonds were mixed. Italian 10yr yields finished at ~4.08%, down ~40bp on the year (although yields hit a low at 3.76% back on 5/2). Spanish 10yr yields saw a large decline (falling from 5.2% to 4.14%) and they finished the year near their lows (3.96% on 11/1). Portuguese 10yr yields were essentially unchanged. Greek 10yr yields fell more than 200bp (from 11.3% to 8.13%). German and UK yields both rose materially (10yr German yields climbed ~60bp to 1.92% while UK borrowing costs surged ~120bp to 3.03%). The spread between 10yr German and Italian yields narrowed to 215bp (down 100bp for the year).
Japan – the NKY was the world’s best performing market in 2013 w/a 56.7% return (although that number gets cut to 28.3% when priced in USD, nearly the same return as the SPX). The best performing NKY members in 2013: Mazda +212%, Softbank +192%, Fuji Heavy +180%, Toto +158%, Tokyo Electric +151%, Furukawa +139%, Tosoh +137%, Oki Electric +136%, Panasonic +134%, Fuji Electric +133.18%, Alps Electric +131%, Tokyo Dome +122%, Daiwa Sec +121%, Showa Shell +119%, NSK +115%. The yen fell 17% in ’13. 10yr JGB yields were essentially unchanged – they started the year at 0.79% and finished at 0.74%.
The BRIC countries were some of the worst performing stock markets on the planet: China (SHCOMP) -6.75%, Brazil (IBOV) -15.5%, India (SENSEX) +8.9%, and Russia (INDEXCF) +1.94%.
Hong Kong – the Hang Seng finished the year up only small (+2.87%). Casino stocks in particular saw big gains (Galaxy Entertainment +127%, Sands China +84%) while tech outperformed too (Tencent +99% and Lenovo +33%).