I’ve added something unusual this week at my attempt a crystal ball reading, most notably JP Morgan action calendar It’s quite extensive 65 pages. Since all of my 1000 plus trades a quarter clear through them, I’m hoping they don’t mind.
Monday August 5th– not much on the economic calendar but investors will be watching some European data to see if the bull market has a new engine. The Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index composite and a variety of country readings will hog the headlights. Pretty much a non-event in my forecast.
Tuesday August 6th- I can’t even find anything to write about on the economic calendar. Obama is schedule to give a speech on housing in Phoenix. I’m sure it’s indoors and about 115 degrees outside. The market lately has sold off when Obama speaks but that’s totally unpredictable. Actually housing could go up, at least we hope it does as we are long PHM. Fed dove Evans speaks but I doubt if anyone listens as there are only two things related to the Fed that anyone cares about. Is tapering going to start in September as expected and who is replacing Bernanke. Don’t look to Evans to clarify either.
Cognizant Technology will report before the bell on Tuesday. This is interesting because the stock has sold off hard due to anxieties about visa restrictions in the immigration legislation that may not even happen. CTSH was recently upgraded to a buy by Goldman Sachs on 7-23. After the bell, Nuance reports. Carl Icahn was reported to be a large holder of NUAN. Both of these names are worth buying before earnings with the caveat understand why you are buying them as earnings move tend to be exaggerated.
Wednesday August 7th– MBA mortgage applications are expected to decline 3.7%. Something sharply different could move housing and banking stocks. We’ll be watching this to gauge its impact on our new holding Pulte Homes.
Weekly crude oil inventories are released. Since this is a weekly number it usually has a limited one day futures trading impact.
Two fed speakers, Plosser and Pianalto. More of the above from Tuesday likely.
Consumer credit is out and could move the XLB and RTH
Green Mountain Coffee reports after the close. Barron’s this week had a negative article on it so there could be some short interest here. Careful in this market shorting as it’s been an unproductive endeavor.
Thursday August 8th the ECB publishes a monthly report that forecasters pay a lot of attention to. A lot of earnings momentum for multi-national U.S. companies will depend if the European economies can pull out of their slump. Market players will be watching initial jobless claims and continuing claims for further evidence of last week weaker than expected job numbers.
Friday August 9th we will wake up to find Chinese consumer price and producer index reports. China has been trying to dampen inflation without squelching demand. This will be closely watched.