How well did Goldman’s top trades do in 2012?
Giles Turner
21 Dec 2012
Every December, the analysts at Goldman Sachs publish their top macro trades for the coming year – an event that attracts much hype among the investment community. But how did the bank’s trades for 2012 pan out?
If you slavishly followed Goldman Sachs trade recommendations of 2012, and allocated an equal weighting of your portfolio to each trade, you would have returned 1.6% over the 12 months since November 30, 2011, excluding transaction costs. In comparison, the Barclays Global Macro Index increased just 0.01% over the past year.
This return is an improvement on 2011, when Goldman Sachs’s top trades returned 0.3% accumulatively.
All the recommended trades began on November 30, 2011, and were closed at various points throughout the year due to changing market conditions.