Enter the Bull
By GENE EPSTEIN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Even by conservative measures, the Dow Jones Industrials could top 15,000 in two years. Dow 17,000 is a 50-50 bet.
Based on cyclical patterns of market history, the odds are better than two chances in three that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 15,000 or higher over the next two years. Based on the same cyclical patterns, there’s about a 50-50 chance that the Dow could hit 17,000 or more.
Also, the broad fundamentals that could drive the Dow to new highs are fairly clear. The stock market enjoyed double-digit earnings growth in 2011, yet barely rose in response, mainly because of fears over the health of the domestic economy and contagion from Europe. Now that those fears have begun to subside, the market’s upside potential can be unleashed.