Twin Black Swans- what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger?

The largest one day drop in points in the Dow was in 2008 when the first TARP vote was rejected by an unruly House of Representatives.  The Dow plunged 800 points in minutes. Now we have two votes, one for our debt ceiling, and the other for the Greece bailout and the European Union.  According to the Washington Post “Boehner and other GOP leaders say they are committed to raising the debt limit, now set at $14.3 trillion, to avoid default, an outcome they acknowledge could prove economically disastrous. Default could also prove politically disastrous: A new Washington Post-Pew Research Center poll found that more people say they would blame Republicans in Congress than Obama if debt-ceiling talks broke down.”  Yet there is no certainty that the young rebellious Right will agree to ANYTHING that Obama gets behind.

Greece’s ability to get a loan from the EU and IMF is contingent on the country making further budget cuts and reign in expenses.  These  austerity requirements are deeply unpopular with the Greek people.  There is no certainty the current Greek government coalition can hold together and deliver these assurances to the creditors.

If markets can get through both of these black swan events, they could be staged for a nice rally.  If not, Friedrich Nietzsche’s saying, ‘what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger’ could really be put to the test.